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Last week there were rumors that the Bank of Japan was considering negative lending rates. Most people expected the Bank of Japan to take at least some measures to increase easing. However, the Bank of Japan voted to keep the target annual growth rate of one trillion yen in base currency unchanged and voted to keep negative interest rates unchanged at -.% and did not expand stock purchases. At the same time, the Bank of Japan also postponed the timetable for achieving the inflation target, saying that it will achieve the % target during the fiscal year. This is the fourth time in about a year that the Bank of Japan has postponed the time to achieve the inflation target. In addition, the core growth forecast for the fiscal year is .%.
In terms of data, the U.S. economic growth in the first quarter hit its slowest pace in two years. % expected. % previous value. % As consumer spending fell and the strong U.S. dollar continued to drag down exports, the recovery of consumers and the housing market remained the bright spot of the U.S. economic development. . This is the third consecutive year that the U.S. has had lower-than-expected start-of-year D data. What keeps the market from being pessimistic about the U.S. economy is the strong performance of the labor market. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the week ending March 3rd is expected to be 10,000. The previous value is 10,000. It has been below the 10,000 mark for consecutive weeks, which is the longest period in the year.
The failure of expectations led to the market's crazy buying of Japanese yen, which indirectly suppressed the US dollar. On the other hand, the ambiguity of the Fed's statement did not give the market a clear signal, and the U.S. economic data is still not ideal and it is difficult to give the market confidence. The Bank of Japan, which is most likely to help the dollar rise, has expressed that it is not in a hurry to increase easing, and the market lacks action. Reasons for more dollars. Therefore, whether it is the Fed's interest rate decision or the Bank of Japan's unexpected inaction, it will push gold prices upward. The most important thing is that the upward breakthrough of the resistance level allowed gold bulls to leverage their strength to form a sustained upward trend.
Today is the last trading day of this week. Gold may be driven by inertia to further rise to the previous high. It is the dividing line between strength and weakness within the day. If it breaks through this level, it is expected to reach a higher level. Otherwise, the price of gold may remain high and fluctuate to consolidate the violent increase overnight. . In terms of fundamentals, we are paying attention to U.S. monthly personal income and expenditure data, but the impact is expected to be limited.
Daily chart: The stochastic indicator breaks through the upper rail of the triangle and tests the previous high, showing a further upward trend.
Hourly chart: Strongly pulling up the moving average system, bulls arrange short-term resistance.
Hourly chart: The short-term upward momentum is sharp and currently consolidated below.
Summary: During the day, it is recommended to step back on the light position and go long and break above. Follow up and look at nearby levels.
Xi'an Dashangdao Commodity Trading Center